Posts Tagged ‘Fed Minutes’

August's Fed Minutes Lead Mortgage Rates Higher

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

FOMC August 2010 MinutesHome affordability took a slight hit this week after the Federal Reserve’s release of its August 10 meeting minutes.

The “Fed Minutes” is a lengthy, detailed recap of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, not unlike the minutes published after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes 3 weeks after a FOMC get-together.

The minutes are lengthy, too.

At 6,181 words, August’s Fed Minutes is thick with data about the economy, its current threats, and its deeper strengths. The minutes also recount the conversations that, ultimately, shape our nation’s monetary policy.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates are rising. Wall Street didn’t see much from the Fed that warranted otherwise.

Among the Fed’s observations from its minutes:

  • On the economy : The recession was deeper than previously believed
  • On jobs : Private employment is expanding slowly
  • On housing : The market was “quite soft” in June

Now, none of this was considered “news”, per se. If anything, investors were expecting for harsher words from the Fed; a bleaker outlook for the economy. And, because they didn’t get it, monies moved to stocks and mortgage bonds lost.

That caused mortgage rates to rise.

The Fed meets 8 times annually. Its next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.  Until then, mortgage rates should remain low and home affordability should remain high. There will be ups-and-downs from day-to-day, but overall, the market is favorable.

The Fed's June Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates In Rally-Mode

Friday, July 16th, 2010

FOMC June 2010 MinutesAccording to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.

Since the Federal Reserve’s release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.

If you’ve never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation’s monetary policy.

At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release.  The corresponding press release was just 360 words.

As it turns out, Wall Street didn’t like what it read in the minutes.  Specifically:

  1. The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
  2. The Fed’s outlook for employment has dipped
  3. Credit conditions are easing only slowly

Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were “to worsen appreciably”.

Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward — just not as quickly as expected.  That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping in Houston.

Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending.  Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a good time to make the call.

Lock your mortgage rate and move on.

The Fed's April Minutes Stabilize Mortgage Rates

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

FOMC April 2010 Minutes

After starting the day in the red, mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve released its April 27-28, 2010 meeting minutes.

It’s good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers in Texas.  Mortgage rates continue to troll along multi-year lows.

“Fed Minutes” are lengthy, detailed recaps of Federal Open Market Committee meetings, not unlike the minutes you’d see after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes Fed Minutes 3 weeks after each respective FOMC get-together.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Because of the minutes’ content and density, it’s of tremendous value to Wall Street and investors.  Fed Minutes provide a glimpse into the conversations and debates that shape the country’s monetary policy.

The broad scope of the published meeting minutes are in sharp contrast to the more well-known, post-meeting press release which reads more like a policy summary.

And the extra words matter.

Here’s some of what the Fed discussed last month:

  • On Greece : A crisis in Greece could slow U.S. domestic growth
  • On housing : Despite government support, growth appears to have stalled
  • On its mortgage buyback program : There’s little reason to sell mortgage bonds right now

When the markets saw the Fed Minutes, what had been a down day for bond markets turned positive. The less-than-sunny outlook for the near-term U.S. economy sparked bond sales, pushing prices higher.

Mortgage rates move opposite mortgage bond prices.

Wall Street is always in search of clues from inside the Fed about what’s next for the economy and post-FOMC minutes usually give good fodder.  April’s meeting was no different.

For now, mortgage rates remain near all-time lows but once the Eurozone issues are settled, rates are likely to rise. If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate, your window may be closing.  Once the economy is turning around for certain, mortgage bonds will be among the first of the casualties.

The March Fed Minutes Explains Why Home Sales Weren't Worse This Winter

Wednesday, April 7th, 2010

FOMC March 2010 MinutesMortgage markets improved yesterday after the Federal Reserve released its March 16, 2010 meeting minutes. It’s good news for in Houston home buyers and rate shoppers — rates could have just as easily gone the other way.

The Fed Minutes is a detailed recap of the debate and discussion that shapes the nation’s monetary policy. The notes are dense; it takes 3 weeks to compile them for publication.

As compared to the more well-known, post-meeting press release, the Fed Minutes are extremely lengthy. For example:

If the press release is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes are the novel.

The extra words matter.

The minutes recount what the Fed did, how the Fed did it, and what the Fed plans to do next – and, in these minutes, Wall Street looks for clues.

This is why the report is important to every rate shopper in the country.

When the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its meetings, it leave clues about the groups next policy-making steps.  For example, in March’s Fed Minutes, it’s clear that the Fed’s concern about inflation is hugely diminished and that’s a major plus for the mortgage bond market.

Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise. The absence of inflation, therefore, helps them to fall.  This improves home affordability, among other things.

Similarly, the Fed Minutes note that real estate sales may have been worse throughout the winter months if not for low mortgage rates and the sense among Americans that home prices were troughing. We may infer, therefore, that rising rates may suppress home sales later this year.

Markets are always looking for clues from inside the Fed and the last meeting’s minute signal that the economy is on its way up.

If you’re looking for a bargain in the housing market, your window to act may be closing.